Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.8
282
36,548
U.S. stocks showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Thursday.
Nifty
0.7
75
11,023
With the rally on the day, the major averages more than offset the losses posted on
Mid Cap
(0.5)
(81)
15,552
Wednesday. The Dow Jones jumped by 0.9% to 24,924 and the Nasdaq soaring up
Small Cap
(0.1)
(9)
16,420
by 1.4% to 7,823.
Bankex
0.9
273
29,959
U.K. stocks recovered from the previous session's losses as oil steadied, the pound
traded flat and investors held out hopes that the U.S. and China will eventually mull
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
new trade talks for a resolution of the trade conflict. The benchmark FTSE 100 was
up by 0.7% to 7,641.
Dow Jones
0.9
225
24,924
Nasdaq
1.4
108
7,823
On domestic front, Indian shares ended on an upbeat note as markets across Asia,
FTSE
0.7
50
7,641
Europe steadied after steep losses in the previous session, and an overnight plunge
in oil prices helped ease worries about rising inflation and higher twin deficits. The
Nikkei
1.2
256
22,188
BSE Sensex was up by 0.8% to 36,548.
Hang Seng
0.6
169
28,481
Shanghai Com
2.2
60
2,838
News Analysis
Cipla acquires 100% stake in South African pharmaceutical company Mirren
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Pfizer stops production at Tamil Nadu plant after 11 USFDA observations
Advances
1,167
670
Declines
1,503
1,140
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
157
71
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
2,836
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
30,462
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
FII
251
496
-4,343
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
681
867
27.2
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
616
720
16.8
*MFs
2,353
8,907
68,279
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
302
410
35.8
Bata India
Others
Buy
825
896
78.0
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
414
589
42.2
BALRAMCHIN
70
8.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
GMRINFRA
18
5.6
Key Upcoming Events
KTKBANK
124
4.8
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
INDIGO
1125
4.7
Jul 13, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
14.85
BAJAJELEC
566
4.7
Jul 13, 2018
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
6.80
6.50
Jul 13, 2018
India
Exports YoY%
20.18
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 16, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
12.60
9.50
PCJEWELLER
122
-5.7
Jul 16, 2018
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
4.43
5.23
More Events on Pg7
ADANIPOWER
19
-5.6
DELTACORP
229
-5.4
KWALITY
17
-5.0
VAKRANGEE
52
-4.8
As on July 12, 2018
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
News Analysis
Cipla acquires 100% stake in South African pharmaceutical company
Mirren
Cipla has acquired a 100 per cent stake in Mirren, a South African over-the-
counter (OTC) pharmaceutical manufacturer and distributor. The transaction is
subject to the approval by the Competition Commission of South Africa. Paul
Miller, CEO of Cipla South Africa, said that once approved, the transaction will
enhance Cipla's current OTC portfolio, by adding Mirren's well-established brands
like Bronco! cough syrup, Coryx, Tensopyn, and Ultimag. This deal will also
increase Cipla's local manufacturing footprint. Lynton Lomas, director of Mirren,
said, "The acquisition by Cipla will help to ensure that, the continued growth that
the Mirren brands have achieved over the past three years will be sustained. The
wellbeing of Mirren's dedicated staff was one of the biggest deciding factors.
Pfizer stops production at Tamil Nadu plant after
11 USFDA
observations
Pfizer's manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu’s Sriperumbudur is not following
quality control norms and lacks data related to laboratory records. These are
among the 11 observations the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) has
made
following
inspections
at
“voluntarily paused” production in the facility, which became a part
billion deal. A Pfizer spokesperson said they were disappointed with the outcome
of the drug regulator’s inspection. “We have submitted a comprehensive response
to the USFDA and are committed to implementing the necessary improvements
and ensuring the quality of our medicines. Pfizer is committed to product quality
and we have voluntarily paused production at our Irungattukottai site.”
Economic and Political News
Corporate News
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,553
681
867
27.2
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,328
616
720
16.8
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
175,200
272
416
52.7
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,246
414
589
42.2
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,754
307
475
54.5
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,744
585
851
45.4
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
282,371
9,348
10,619
13.6
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,876
348
655
88.0
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,682
754
800
6.1
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
28,793
131
218
66.7
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,539
302
410
35.8
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,674
737
1,016
37.9
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
558,996
2,147
2,315
7.8
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,14,069
918
1,050
14.4
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
3,123
993
1,230
23.9
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,732
835
948
13.5
~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
27,545
1,214
1,764
31.2
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
21,193
219
350
59.8
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment.
GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,205
825
1,020
23.6
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in demand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus
on achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,529
606
780
28.7
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit
CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-
20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its peers and own
fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees income.
Yes Bank
86,418
375
418
11.5
We expect YES to grow its advance much higher
than industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA (1.2%
RBL Bank
24,243
576
670
16.3
FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,677
276
360
30.2
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,453
1,644
2,178
32.5
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,606
2,026
2,500
23.4
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,587
211
395
87.2
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
30,485
153
210
37.5
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Infosys Ltd - July 13, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
19,485
17,078
14.1
18083
7.7
EBIDTA
5,022
4,490
11.8
4,930
1.8
%
26.3
26.3
27.3
PAT
3,726
3,483
7.0
3,690
1.0
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 13, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jun
14.85
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
6.50
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
20.18
Jul 16, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
12.60
9.50
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
5.23
7:30 AMChina
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
6.80
6.70
Jul 17, 2018
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Jun
(0.09)
0.55
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jun
(7.70)
Jul 18, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
1,325.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
1,323.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
Jul 24, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
5.42
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
668.00
Jul 26, 2018
5:15 PMEuro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
Jul 27, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
2.00
3.80
Jul 31, 2018
1:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jul
(15.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
51.50
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
126.40
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
Aug 01, 2018
11:30 PMUS
FOMC rate decision
%
Aug 1
2.00
2.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
8.5
10.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.8
4.6
4.9
7.0
6.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
6.0
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
3.50
0.0
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,010
2.0
(10.7)
17.7
Russia
Micex
4,493
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,948
1.7
5.4
12.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,778
(7.0)
(11.1)
(10.8)
South Africa
Top 40
51,045
(1.8)
3.0
9.2
Mexico
Mexbol
49,025
5.9
1.0
(2.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
930
(2.4)
(7.0)
(4.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,689
(5.0)
(7.0)
(4.2)
Thailand
SET 50
1,079
(4.9)
(6.8)
8.5
USA
Dow Jones
24,700
(2.4)
1.2
14.7
UK
FTSE
7,592
(1.9)
4.5
2.4
Japan
Nikkei
21,932
(3.8)
1.2
9.5
Germany
DAX
12,417
(2.7)
1.6
(1.2)
France
CAC
5,354
(1.2)
1.5
4.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 13, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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